Editor's note: The following article was translated and edited from an article that appeared in the opinion section of huanqiu.com. In response to the recent successful docking of the Shenzhou-9 capsule to the Tiangong-1 space lab, the author discusses the financial incentives behind a national space programme, the present opportunity for China to take advantage of the NASA's shutting down of the space shuttle programme, and, how despite this, China still isn't talking about their space programme "overtaking the US" any time soon, instead positioning itself, as the tortoise to the US's hare in the great space race.

On the eve of the docking of the Shenzhou-9 capsule to the Tiangong-1 space lab, Hong Kong newspaper, The Sun, published the following article:

"The Tortoise Strategy of China's Space Programme: As the Shenzhou-9 capsule rises into the sky to dock with the Tiangong-1 space lab, China's long-term goal of establishing a space station comes one step closer. While it remains to be seen whether or not the docking of the two spacecraft will be successful…even if the mission is a success, ultimately, the development of China's space programme is still years behind those of both the United States and Russia…and, as far as space exploration goes, China still has a long way to go towards sending probes to the edges of the Milky Way Galaxy, as the US has already done. The question is: Is Beijing's huge investment in space travel worth it?"

Cost vs. benefits: China must not discontinue its space programme

While there's no doubt that space travel of any kind is incredibly expensive, currently, it remains unknown just how much the Shenzhou-9 launch cost. What we do know (according to official reports), is that China has invested more than 35 billion RMB in its space programme.

Whether or not this figure still accurately reflects the real cost of the programme… who knows? There is, however, the argument that it is less expensive for China to invest in a space programme than for it to develop and build a fleet of military aircraft carriers from scratch (which would cost an estimated 40 billion RMB). As such, it's no small wonder that China began developing its space programme early on, while it is still in the process of renovating its first aircraft carrier, the soviet-era warship Varyag, which it bought from Russia, half-built, years ago.

Experts in Beijing also point out that space programmes are by no means a waste of money, and that the docking of the Shenzhou-9 and Tiangong-1 is not being done simply as a show of power. Actually, the rate of return for investment in a national space programme is more than 1400 percent. Take, for example, the US Apollo programme (1963-72), which was designed to land humans on the moon and bring them back to earth safely. This space programme cost about 25 billion USD at the time (and about 145 billion in 2007 dollars). While this is an exorbitant amount of money to spend on what was at the time considered something of a pipedream, the Apollo missions ultimately lead to more than 3,000 patents, which, once released by NASA for civilian uses, led to more than 52 billion USD in profits. According to statistics from the US-based Space Foundation (a non-profit organisation that supports the global space industry through information and education programme), in 2010 the total size of the global aerospace economy reached 276.5 billion USD; the commercial satellite industry alone was worth 102 billion USD. Yet, in China there were still those who were critical during the Shenzhou-7 and Shenzhou-8 launches, even though they directly preceded the 2011 launch of Chinese Beidou navigation system prototype – China's attempt to wean itself off its dependence on the US-controlled Global Positioning System (GPS) standard.

No matter what, China cannot afford to discontinue investing in a national space programme. It's quite likely that humankind is on the eve of discovering huge new developments in outerspace technology, and right now, China alone possesses the capacity to conduct further space operations (in light of an aging fleet of shuttles and budgetary concerns, NASA's space shuttle programme was more-or-less shut down in 2011). In the eyes of many Chinese, now is the time to take advantage of this sort of "redistribution of space benefits".

China still "the tortoise chasing after the hare"

It is the author's opinion that while the US has traditionally been on the offensive against the "rise of Asia" [China], it's become readily apparent that the US in recent years has reduced the scope of its containment policy, instead beefing-up its defensive strategy. And in terms of national space programmes, the US can no longer act as boldly as it once did, saying things such as "we're going to explore the galaxy". These days, there is much precedent for the US to compromise with China on many matters. Why is this exactly? Simply put, because China is no longer the "emerging" economy that it was 30 years ago. And the recent improvements to the national space programme is yet another shining example of China's growing strength.

It's worth mentioning that in 2010, China had 15 successful space launches – for the first time matching the US. However,even though Shenzhou rockets are now routinely kissing the sky (so to speak), this isn't an unprecedented feat. Actually, it's merely a repeat of the US's space programme dominance several decades earlier. And it seems that China is likely aware of this, as I've found the national space programme to be very pragmatic, not yet resorting to sloganeering about "overtaking the US". After all, with only about 30 orbiting satellites in the sky as compared to the US's 400-plus, China is still, in all honesty, the tortoise chasing after the hare.

Source: opinion.huanqiu 

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Keywords: China Shenzhou-9 Tiangong-1 docking United States and China space race Chinese national space programme